How does strategic foresight enhance policy capacities in the governance of grand challenges?
本文通过分析威尔士案例，研究战略预见如何增强适应性、前瞻性和未来导向的政策能力，以应对复杂、非线性的重大挑战，为政策制定者提供可推广的机制和教训。
This paper analyses the potential of Strategic foresight (SF) in tackling non-linear and long-term policy problems, using grand challenges as the unit of analysis. While the strengths of SF are well understood, so far the theorisation of its governance capabilities has been limited by an empirical focus on piecemeal applications that are disjointed from governance systems. This paper addresses this gap through a framework that considers adaptive, anticipatory and future-regarding capacities. When addressing grand challenges, these three capacities are significant because they help navigate complex and non-linear policymaking, handle uncertainty and consider long-term goals. Drawing on interviews with key informants, this paper analyses how these are activated in the case of Wales (UK), a devolved government that is globally recognised for its innovative and future-oriented 2015 Well-being of Future Generations Act. In so doing, this paper identifies theoretical mechanisms generalisable to other policy areas and transferable lessons from a critical case explaining how SF enhances adaptive, anticipatory and future-regarding capacities. Points for practitioners: Strategic foresight can enhance adaptive, anticipatory and future-regarding policy capacities. Strategic foresight encourages the consideration of the interconnections between policy capacities which further improve management of challenging problems. Strategic foresight's potential is unlocked through better integration with existing governance arrangements. Applications should ensure transparency and open scrutiny.