The information linkages across countries around tariff imposition announcements during the second Trump administration
研究了第二任特朗普政府期间美国多次关税宣布对国际金融一体化的影响，发现关税冲击会加剧市场波动和跨国相关性，其中4月2日的关税政策影响最大且最持久，进口伙伴比出口伙伴受影响更大。
Purpose This study investigates cross-country information linkages during the second Trump administration, focusing on the effects of multiple US tariff announcements on international financial integration. It aims to identify how tariff-induced shocks influence market volatility and dynamic correlations between the United States and its major trading partners. The research seeks to enhance understanding of the transmission of trade policy uncertainty across global equity markets. Design/methodology/approach We employ country-specific exchange-traded funds (ETFs) listed on US stock exchanges to capture cross-market interactions. Realized volatility measures and dynamic correlation analysis are used to assess the evolution of volatility and co-movement following three major US tariff announcements. The study compares both the immediate and delayed effects of these policy shocks across different groups of trading partners. Findings The results indicate that three US tariff policies exerted significant impacts on market volatility and cross-country correlations. The April 2nd tariff policy generated the most substantial and persistent effects. Correlations exhibited moderate initial responses but intensified over time, particularly following repeated or broad-based tariff actions. Dual-role trading partners displayed synchronized market movements under strong US influence, whereas China exhibited a distinctive pattern driven by domestic policies adjustments and regional dynamics. The analysis further reveals that import partners were more affected by tariff shocks than export partners. Originality/value This study contributes to the literature by providing novel empirical evidence on how US trade policies transmit across international markets. It underscores the asymmetric and time-varying nature of market integration under trade tensions and offers implications for investors and policymakers concerned with financial stability.