Teetering on the brink of debt and hunger: Empirical examination of the linkages between external debt and food security in Africa
基于32个非洲国家2012-2022年面板数据，研究发现外债存量与偿债均损害粮食安全，但多边贷款反而改善粮食安全，而双边和私人贷款效果相反。
Debt accumulation and food insecurity are two pressing challenges confronting developing countries, yet evidence on their link remains limited, particularly in Africa. This study uses balanced panel data from 32 African countries (2012–2022) to examine how external debt stock and servicing affect food security. Results support the notion that “the dose makes the poison”: higher debt stock undermines food security, with effects differing across its dimensions. Elevated debt stock is also associated with higher child stunting, reflecting long-term nutritional risks. Debt servicing has an even stronger negative effect, worsening availability, affordability, safety and quality of food, as well as child nutrition. Disaggregated analysis shows that debt sources matter: multilateral loans improve food security and reduce stunting, while bilateral and private loans have the opposite effect. These adverse effects persist across income levels, food-import dependency and infrastructural development, though with varying intensity. The findings highlight the need for African countries to balance external borrowing with effective debt management and channel borrowed funds into productive, sustainability-enhancing investments that strengthen food systems and protect vulnerable populations, particularly children.