Industry 4.0 and Structural Transformation: The Impacts on Economic Diversification in Developing Countries
研究了2005-2023年间工业4.0对非洲、亚洲、美洲和大洋洲发展中国家结构转型的门槛效应，发现数字整合对经济多样化的影响存在临界点，低水平时信息技术服务贸易抑制多样化，高水平时促进多样化，而信息技术商品贸易在早期促进转型后期则带来过度专业化风险。
ABSTRACT This paper examines the threshold‐dependent effects of Industry 4.0 on structural transformation across developing economies in Africa, Asia, the Americas, and Oceania over the period 2005–2023. It explores how international trade in information and communication technology services (ITICT services) and information and communication technology goods as a percentage of total trade (ICT goods % Trade) influences economic diversification, conditional on different levels of digital development. Employing dynamic panel threshold regression models, the analysis uncovers nonlinear relationships between digital integration and structural transformation. The results indicate a dual‐natured relationship marked by critical tipping points in digital integration. At lower levels of digital development, the expansion of ITICT services exerts a negative and statistically significant effect on diversification. Once a higher level of digital integration is attained, ITICT services contribute positively to diversification, particularly in economies characterized by rising income levels, increasing urbanization, and greater macroeconomic stability. For ICT goods % Trade, the findings show that trade integration supports structural transformation at early stages of digital development, while at more advanced stages, the impact weakens and becomes adverse, pointing to potential risks of overspecialization and growing technological dependence. In addition, the effects of foreign direct investment and inflation are shown to be regime dependent. Beyond structural diversification, the findings suggest that when digital integration is combined with adequate absorptive capacity and institutional readiness, Industry 4.0 technologies can promote eco‐innovation, resource efficiency, and more sustainable supply chain practices, thereby linking digital transformation to broader environmental and sustainability strategies.