On the Rebound: How Combined-Cycle Power Plants Reshape Electric Fossil Fuel Demand
研究了美国联合循环电厂能效提升对天然气和煤炭发电需求的影响，发现热效率提高16.3%导致天然气使用量下降21.8%、化石燃料总用量下降6.6%、二氧化碳排放减少2.0%，对理解反弹效应的政策含义有重要价值。
Electrification with more energy-efficient combined-cycle power plants has been featured prominently in the US energy system for multiple decades. This empirical analysis estimates the role of efficiency improvements for natural gas plants on the use of coal and natural gas for U.S. electric generation. The estimates are based upon actual technical improvements in energy efficiency (measured as declining heat rates) rather than strong economic priors like price elasticities. The estimates underscore that the meaning of the rebound effect will have an important policy content with very different interpretations. Natural gas heat rates improved by 16.3% since 2001. Over the same period, these improvements caused a 21.8% drop in natural gas use, a 6.6% decline in fossil fuel use, and a 2.0% decrease in carbon dioxide emissions associated with these fuel use adjustments.