Countering autocratization in a contested liberal international order: comparing the role of EU conditionality in Georgia (2022–2024) and Slovakia (1994–1998)
通过比较斯洛伐克和格鲁吉亚两个案例，分析欧盟条件性在何种条件下能有效对抗威权化，发现有利的国际环境是关键因素，对研究欧盟东扩和民主化有参考价值。
This paper analyzes the conditions under which EU conditionality can counter autocratization through a comparative case study of Slovakia (1994–1998) and Georgia (2022–2024). In both cases, the EU employed negative conditionality against autocratizing candidate states ahead of pivotal elections. Given high public support for EU integration and vibrant civil societies, EU’s ‘sticks’ created favourable conditions for public mobilisation. Drawing on participant observation and secondary sources, the paper shows that pro-democratic groups in both countries united around the EU and framed elections as referendums on European integration. Yet outcomes diverged: mobilisation contributed to government change and democratisation in Slovakia, but to regime survival and autocratization in Georgia. To explain this divergence, the paper highlights the contested liberal international order in which EU enlargement unfolds. In Slovakia, liberal consensus within the EU and weakness of autocratic hegemons facilitated the translation of mobilisation into government change and democratisation. In contrast, external support from Russia and Hungary, combined with entrenched domestic authoritarianism, enabled the Georgian Dream party to withstand domestic and international pressure. The findings refine differential-empowerment theory by identifying a favourable international environment as a scope condition under which EU conditionality is most likely to promote change through the societal channel.