To Induce Repeat Purchases: Retail Strategy Analysis in Online Blind Box Marketplaces
研究在线盲盒市场中两种零售策略（道具卡策略和可退款策略）如何吸引消费者重复购买，并比较其对企业利润和消费者剩余的影响。
In online blind box markets, consumers can identify obtained products without physically opening the boxes and can receive a set bonus upon collecting all items. These features enable blind box firms to design retail strategies to attract consumers to make repeated purchases. Two prominent strategies are the prop card strategy and the refundable strategy. The prop card strategy can increase the probability that consumers obtain desired items by providing prop cards, whereas the refundable strategy allows consumers to return unsatisfactory products. Despite the visible benefit of attracting consumers, both strategies involve potential disadvantages: a higher probability of obtaining desired items can reduce the perceived value of the set bonus, while offering refunds may decrease overall market participation. We develop a theoretical model to compare three strategies: the baseline strategy (without prop cards or refunds), the prop card strategy, and the refundable strategy. We find that the prop card and refundable strategies provide firms with an additional decision lever, allowing them to achieve profits at least as high as under the baseline strategy. These strategies may also enhance consumer surplus, thereby creating a win-win outcome for both firms and consumers. In a direct comparison, the refundable strategy outperforms the prop card strategy when the negative externality from refunds is limited; otherwise, the prop card strategy is superior. Counterintuitively, firms may strategically lower prices as the set bonus increases to stimulate repeated purchases. We also demonstrate the robustness of our findings under extensions including asymmetric draw probabilities, parameter interdependence, and multiple products.