Supply-side or demand-side? Assessing the economic impact of pandemics and wars on G7 countries since the 1800s
研究自19世纪以来重大战争和流行病对七国集团经济供给侧和需求侧的影响，发现这些灾难主要持久损害供给侧，而需求侧影响较小且短暂，但各国反应差异显著。
We investigate the impact of major wars and pandemics on supply and demand dynamics in G7 economies since the 1800s. Using a neoclassical synthesis framework, we decompose real GDP per capita into trend (supply) and cyclical (demand) components via univariate filters and unobserved-components models. Country-specific local projections reveal that catastrophic events primarily and persistently damage the supply side, with wars causing large, long-lasting losses in productive capacity. Demand-side effects are generally smaller and more short-lived. However, no uniform G7 response exists; effects vary considerably in direction, magnitude, and persistence across countries. These differences are amplified by how shocks are measured-binary indicators versus intensity-based metrics-highlighting the importance of shock severity. By disentangling channels and incorporating heterogeneity, our analysis underscores the need for tailored, country-specific stabilization and reconstruction policies.