Certainty amid uncertainty: Relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and individual expectations
利用专业预测者和家庭的调查数据，研究个体收入预期在宏观经济不确定性高企时的调整方式，发现平均预期随不确定性上升而下降，但家庭的主观不确定性却与宏观不确定性呈负相关。
We study how individual income expectations adjust during periods of high macroeconomic uncertainty, using survey data from professional forecasters and households. We find that mean expectations decrease disproportionally with rising macroeconomic uncertainty, as predicted by most economics and finance models. However, the relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and individual subjective uncertainty is more nuanced. While there is a positive correlation among professional forecasters, it is not the case among households. In fact, for households, the correlation is often negative, contrary to what is typically predicted. In addition, subjective uncertainty shows significant persistence, even after controlling for macroeconomic and individual factors. We demonstrate that our empirical results can be reconciled with Max-Min expected utility and smooth ambiguity preferences. This has implications for economic and financial research seeking to study periods of high macroeconomic uncertainty.