The reaction of firms' expectations to monetary policy: evidence from Norwegian firms
利用挪威企业预期数据，研究发现企业对意外加息会下调价格压力、产出和就业增长预期，但对未来加息路径意外收紧却上调产出增长预期，支持货币政策的信息效应。
Abstract An important transmission channel of monetary policy is the expectations channel. However, although this channel is important in theory, it has received limited attention in the empirical literature. One reason for this lack of focus is the scarcity of data on firms' expectations. This paper uses a novel data set on firms' expectations and estimates how they respond to monetary policy announcements. I find that firms respond to unexpected changes in the current policy rate by revising downward expectations about price pressure, output and employment growth, and labor market tightness. However, following an unexpected tightening in the future path of monetary policy, firms revise upward expectations about output growth. While the first result is in line with the predictions of the New Keynesian model, the second provides support for the information effect of monetary policy.