The impact of aggregate fluctuations across the UK income distribution
利用英国劳动力调查数据,研究总体经济波动对不同收入群体收入和就业的异质性影响,发现收入分布下半部分主要通过工时和就业调整,上半部分主要通过小时工资调整,并将此异质性纳入HANK模型,发现其使消费对总体冲击的响应放大约10%。
Abstract In this article, we examine the response of earnings and employment to fluctuations in aggregate economic activity (GDP) across the income distribution. Using data from the UK’s Labour Force Survey, we present evidence that aggregate fluctuations have economically significant but heterogeneous impacts across the income distribution. While the earnings response is broadly similar across the distribution, further decompositions reveal important differences in the channels of transmission. Changes to hours worked and employment better explain the earnings response in the bottom half of the distribution, whereas changes to the hourly wage are more important in the top half. We incorporate these empirical estimates into the calibration of a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) model for the UK and find that the heterogeneity we document amplifies the consumption response to aggregate shocks by around 10 per cent.