The Approval–Favorability Gap Index and the pricing of political risk: Policy competence versus personal appeal in U.S. equity markets
构建了周度认可-好感度差距指数（AFGI），分离总统工作表现评价与个人情感态度，发现政策能力受认可时期标普500年化收益19.3%，个人魅力受喜爱时期收益-15.0%，差异显著。
We construct a weekly Approval-Favorability Gap Index (AFGI) separating evaluative judgments of presidential job performance from affective attitudes toward the individual, using 892 weekly observations spanning four U.S. presidencies (2006–2026). Periods when presidents are approved of more than liked are associated with 19.3% annualized S&P 500 returns; periods when they are liked more than approved of with − 15 . 0 % . This 34.3 percentage point differential is significant in Wald tests across all specifications ( p = 0 . 021 ) and block bootstrap inference ( p = 0 . 014 ), with lower tail-risk perception in High Policy regimes (CBOE SKEW, p = 0 . 024 ). Results are robust across Fama–French five-factor, Carhart, and q -factor models. • Construct weekly Approval–Favorability Gap Index (AFGI) from 2006– 2026 polls. • AFGI separates policy competence (approval) from personal appeal (favorability). • High Policy regime links to 19.3% annualized S&P 500 excess returns. • High Personal regime links to −15.0% returns and higher volatility. • Wald tests significant (p < 0.05) across all specifications; robust to FF5, Carhart, q-factor models.