Temperature sensitivity of residential energy demand on the global scale: A Bayesian Partial Pooling Model
使用贝叶斯部分池化模型，基于126个国家1978-2023年的数据，发现居民用电和天然气需求仅在极端温度（低于-5°C或高于30°C）下显著增加，且发达国家对高温更敏感。
This paper contributes to the limited literature on the temperature sensitivity of residential energy demand on a global scale. Using a Bayesian Partial Pooling model, we estimate country-specific intercepts and slopes, focusing on non-linear temperature response functions. The results, based on data for up to 126 countries spanning from 1978 to 2023, indicate a higher demand for residential electricity and natural gas at temperatures below -5°C and a higher demand for electricity at temperatures above 30°C. For temperatures above 23°C, the relationship between power demand and temperature steepens. Demand in developed countries is more sensitive to high temperatures than in less developed countries, possibly due to an inability to meet cooling demands in the latter. • Our Bayesian Partial Pooling uses both inter- and intra- country variation. • We use regionalized temperature bins for a panel of 126 countries for 1978-2023. • Our global analysis reveals climate-driven shifts in residential energy use. • Demand for electricity and natural gas increases only for temperature extremes. • High per-capita electricity countries show amplified heat-related demand growth.