Safe havens or war hedges? Asset behavior during the 2026 escalation of the Iran conflict
研究2026年2月底伊朗冲突升级期间，黄金、比特币、石油和欧洲天然气是否重新发挥安全港作用，发现黄金和比特币保护作用弱，石油短期对冲效果明显但源于战争供应风险，整体更偏向战争对冲而非安全资产。
We examine whether the late-February 2026 escalation of the Iran conflict revived the safe-haven role of traditional and alternative assets. Using daily Refinitiv data, an event-study design, and interaction regressions with global equity returns, we analyze gold, Bitcoin, oil, and European natural gas (TTF) around the conflict escalation. Gold provides, at best, weak safe-haven properties, with no significant abnormal returns and higher volatility during the event window. Bitcoin offers no robust protection. Oil displays the clearest short-run hedge, but because its payoff is directly exposed to war-related supply risk. The evidence points to war hedges rather than a broad re-emergence of genuinely safe assets.