1950年以来爱尔兰的季度GDP

Quarterly GDP for Ireland since 1950

Explorations in Economic History · 2026
被引 0 · 同刊同年前 6%
ABS 3

中文导读

利用因子增强的Chow-Lin插值法,构建了爱尔兰1950年以来的季度GDP和GNP估计序列,并与官方数据衔接,发现1950年代和1980年代的经济收缩频率和幅度远超其他时期。

Abstract

We construct estimates of quarterly GDP (and GNP) for Ireland from 1950, linking to official data from 1995 onward, using a novel factor-augmented Chow-Lin interpolation. Compared to the only alternative series (OECD, 2025), our estimates exploit the variation in a large number of official quarterly economic data and are broadly consistent with contemporary reports. Our series permits a more granular identification of turning points in the Irish economy than was previously possible. The frequency and magnitude of quarterly contractions in the 1950s and 1980s dwarfed those of other decades resulting in lower average growth rates. In contrast, the 1990s are confirmed as a decisive period of higher growth and rapid convergence.

宏观经济经济史国民收入核算时间序列分析