Interest rate misalignments and monetary policy: Evidence from U.S. states
研究了统一货币政策是否有效应对美国各州经济差异，基于泰勒规则构建各州最优利率，发现联邦基金利率与州最优利率偏差大且持久，偏差对通胀和失业有显著影响。
Abstract We examine whether a uniform monetary policy effectively addresses diverse state‐level economic conditions in the U.S. Using quarterly data from 1989 to 2017 for 33 states, we construct state‐optimal interest rates based on Taylor rule frameworks incorporating local inflation and unemployment gaps. Deviations from the federal funds rate are large, persistent, and cluster regionally. Local projections show that a 1 pp positive deviation is associated with a 0.6 pp decline in headline inflation and an increase in unemployment, with the strongest effects in non‐tradable sectors. State‐specific deviation shocks elicit larger and longer‐lasting responses than aggregate shocks, underscoring the importance of cross‐sectional heterogeneity.