Climate-Related Disasters, Inequality, and Tax Morale in Sub-Saharan Africa
研究了2011-2021年25个撒哈拉以南非洲国家中气候灾害（干旱、极端温度、洪水等）与税收道德的关系，发现灾害类型影响不同，且通过加剧经济不平等和削弱公共信任降低税收道德，农村和低收入国家更明显。
This paper investigates the relationship between climate-related disasters and tax morale in 25 sub-Saharan African countries from 2011 to 2021. Using Afrobarometer survey data and disaster records from the International Disaster Database – Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, we apply multilevel logistic regression and mediation analysis to assess direct and indirect relationships between five disaster types – droughts, extreme temperatures, floods, tropical storms, and wildfires – and tax morale. The results indicate heterogeneity across disaster types: floods are associated with higher tax morale, while droughts and extreme temperatures are associated with lower tax morale. The cumulative experience of multiple disasters is negatively associated with tax morale. Mediation analysis shows that disasters are associated with lower tax morale through increased economic inequality and eroded trust in public institutions, with these patterns more pronounced in rural areas and low-income countries. Further analysis shows that national disaster risk legislation in Benin, Kenya, and South Africa mitigates the negative relationship between disasters and tax morale. The findings highlight the importance of integrating climate resilience and equity considerations into tax policy, as well as strengthening public trust and addressing inequality, both necessary for sustaining tax compliance amid rising climate-related shocks.