A modeling framework for the inoperability Assessment of interdependent critical infrastructures exposed to spatially distributed natural hazards
将动态不可用性投入产出模型与基于copula的灾害空间模型结合,评估关键基础设施在空间分布自然灾害下的不可用性风险,并应用于意大利东北部极端风灾下的天然气和电力网络系统。
In this paper, a Dynamic Inoperability Input-Output Model (DIIM) is integrated with a copula-based hazard spatial model to assess the risk of inoperability of critical infrastructures exposed to spatially distributed natural hazards. Copulas are used because they can describe the natural hazard extent across a spatial domain. In particular, Canonical-vine copulas (C-vine) are here used to model the complex spatial dependencies while accounting also for the tail effects typical of extreme hazard events. The proposed modeling framework is applied to a system of systems comprising artifact gas and power networks exposed to extreme wind from Northeast of Italy meteo.