🌙

面向空间分布自然灾害下相互依赖关键基础设施不可用性评估的建模框架

A modeling framework for the inoperability Assessment of interdependent critical infrastructures exposed to spatially distributed natural hazards

Reliability Engineering and System Safety · 2026
被引 0
ABS 3

中文导读

将动态不可用性投入产出模型与基于copula的灾害空间模型结合,评估关键基础设施在空间分布自然灾害下的不可用性风险,并应用于意大利东北部极端风灾下的天然气和电力网络系统。

Abstract

In this paper, a Dynamic Inoperability Input-Output Model (DIIM) is integrated with a copula-based hazard spatial model to assess the risk of inoperability of critical infrastructures exposed to spatially distributed natural hazards. Copulas are used because they can describe the natural hazard extent across a spatial domain. In particular, Canonical-vine copulas (C-vine) are here used to model the complex spatial dependencies while accounting also for the tail effects typical of extreme hazard events. The proposed modeling framework is applied to a system of systems comprising artifact gas and power networks exposed to extreme wind from Northeast of Italy meteo.

关键基础设施自然灾害风险评估相互依赖空间建模