Bicycle route choice models with explicit safety indicators
研究了哥本哈根地区自行车路线选择模型，加入预期碰撞和近碰撞次数作为安全指标，发现安全指标显著影响路线选择，且不同骑行者对安全的偏好差异大。
The literature suggests that safety is among the most crucial factors influencing decisions regarding cycling. The safety aspect also immediately affects the route choice behaviour of cyclists. Cyclists do not necessarily choose the objectively safest routes; instead, their route choices are influenced by subjective safety. Objective safety, such as crash risk and infrastructure conditions, further shapes route choices by influencing subjective safety. This study estimates several bicycle route choice models for the Copenhagen metropolitan area, where safety is accounted for with explicit indicators: the expected number of crashes and near-crashes on the routes. We employ several utility specifications in terms of the inclusion of the explicit safety indicators to understand how cyclists’ route choice behaviour can be reflected in the models. Although the investigated route choice models already account for multiple network attributes, explicit safety indicators have an additional significant influence. The effect of expected near-crashes on route choice behaviour is less obvious than that of expected crashes, and the former require more in-depth model investigation. The results suggest high inter-respondent heterogeneity in preferences regarding safety. We consolidate the results of route choice models with the computation of elasticity values and scenario analyses. These suggest focusing safety improvements along main corridors is an efficient way to improve overall safety, even though it remains difficult to isolate the impact of specific safety measures from other elements, such as broader road design changes or network-wide effects. Finally, we critically discuss how the safety aspect should be included in route choice models.