Bringing Back Intuition into Scenario Planning
整合心理学与管理学中的直觉研究成果，提出七项关键主题以改进直觉逻辑方法中直觉的操作化，帮助组织在不确定环境中更好地利用管理者的隐性知识制定情景。
Intuitive logics is a prominent scenario planning method of strategic foresight that organizations use to plan in the context of uncertain future operating environments. Designed to counter linear forecasting approaches, intuitive logics is a method for envisioning and embracing multiple futures. Rooted in the works of Herman Kahn and Pierre Wack in military and corporate contexts, intuitive logics values gut feeling and tacit knowledge to foster creativity and challenge conventional thinking. Despite the name, and the importance of intuition in intuitive logics intuition remains poorly defined and operationalized in scenario practice. This article addresses this by integrating insights from psychology and management intuition research with the intuitive logics literature. Seven key themes, found in both disciplinary settings, offer practical recommendations to advance the use of intuition in the intuitive logics method thereby enriching strategic dialogue and enhancing organizational adaptability in uncertain contexts. In practical terms, bringing intuition research into scenario planning could lead to the development of scenarios that better capture and make actionable the experiences and tacit knowledge of managers as they work to navigate their organizations toward unknown futures.