Regressive deconcentration and knowledge-intensive business services: New evidence for the Brazilian regional development agenda
研究了2007至2021年间巴西558个微区域中知识密集型商业服务的空间扩散，发现其呈现倒退式分散化和极化残余空间扩散，加剧了区域不平等，对政策制定者有参考价值。
By introducing the concepts of regressive deconcentration and polarized residual spatial diffusion, this study advances the debate on regional development strategies in emerging economies and highlights the intertwined role of deindustrialization and Knowledge-Intensive Business Services (KIBS) in Brazil’s uneven territorial transformation. The analysis focuses on the spatial diffusion of KIBS across 558 Brazilian microregions between 2007 and 2021, applying spatial econometric techniques and dynamic panel models. The results reveal a process of regressive deconcentration, manufacturing declines in core regions without generating compensatory gains in peripheral areas. KIBS expansion follows a distinct trajectory. Rather than spreading evenly across the territory, it exhibits polarized residual spatial diffusion, remaining concentrated in regions with skilled labor, industrial activity, and infrastructure, without offsetting the losses caused by deindustrialization. If reinforced by the diffusion of digital technologies, this pattern of KIBS expansion could become a new driver of regional disparities, in contrast to the decline of manufacturing. Taken together, these dynamics underscore the ambivalent role of KIBS in structural transformation. While they foster productivity and innovation in advanced regions, they simultaneously reinforce spatial inequalities. Taken together, these dynamics suggest that inclusive development will only be achieved through policies that simultaneously strengthen human capital, foster knowledge-intensive manufacturing, and stimulate the diffusion of KIBS across a broader territorial base.