Trafficking as choice? Evidence from Nigeria
基于尼日利亚埃多州2700多名受访者的调查数据，研究发现尽管知晓强迫劳动风险，仍有相当比例的人愿意通过人贩子移民，这反映了有限合法移民选择下的约束性选择。
The discourse on human trafficking often depicts migrants as deceived victims, while alternative accounts view trafficking as a constrained migration strategy. We contribute to this debate using original survey data from two cross-sectional waves (2021 and 2023) covering more than 2700 respondents in Edo State, Nigeria. A substantial share of respondents reports a willingness to migrate via traffickers despite awareness of the risks of forced labor. A list experiment provides suggestive evidence of underreporting of trafficking approval, particularly among women, likely reflecting stigma surrounding sex work. We examine the determinants of trafficking approval through an aspirations–capabilities framework. Willingness to migrate via traffickers is highest among individuals with strong migration aspirations but limited capabilities. In contrast, exposure to anti-trafficking campaigns has little effect. Respondents are generally well-informed about the potential risks and returns associated with trafficking and do not exhibit cognitive biases such as motivated reasoning. Overall, our findings suggest that trafficking is not primarily driven by ignorance, but instead reflects a constrained choice shaped by limited legal migration options and structural barriers. • 1 in 4 would consider trafficking for migration despite forced labor risks in a representative survey in Edo State, Nigeria. • List experiment reveals gendered underreporting. • High aspirations and low capabilities predict trafficking approval. • Prospective migrants who would resort to trafficking hold reasonable risk and income expectations, with no evidence of motivated reasoning or selective recall. • Awareness campaigns show limited impact; structural reform is needed.