Unravelling a vicious cycle: extreme weather events, urban expansion, and deforestation
本文用163个国家2001-2018年的数据，通过联立方程模型分析极端天气、城市扩张和森林砍伐之间的相互影响，发现干旱和洪水会推动城市扩张进而导致森林砍伐，增加灾害脆弱性，并强调针对性适应政策的重要性。
Abstract We statistically analyse the link between extreme weather events, urban expansion, and tree cover loss in a data set of regions in 163 countries from 2001 to 2018. While previous research has focused on these phenomena individually, we provide quantitative evidence on the chain of events in a whole cycle. A simultaneous equation model allows us to capture the interrelations and to quantify their strength. We show how droughts and floods can drive urban expansion, triggering deforestation, which in turn increases vulnerability to disasters. In a heterogeneity analysis across continents and levels of development, we uncover differences in the strength of the cycle and the statistical significance of its links. These findings emphasize the need for targeted, region-specific adaptation policies. We stress the importance of multilevel governance and land use planning to balance urban growth, environmental sustainability, and disaster impact reduction.