Challenges in Navigating Scenario Planning
通过NASA约翰逊航天中心2006年的自我民族志研究，揭示情景规划如何遭遇领导偏见和内部权力动态，以及如何通过并行举措逐步影响战略。
Scenario planning is often promoted as a way to challenge assumptions and prepare organizations for uncertainty. Yet little is known about what happens when scenarios confront leadership bias and internal power dynamics. Drawing on an autoethnographic study of a 2006 scenario planning effort at NASA’s Johnson Space Center, this article reveals how strategic persistence and organizational politics initially limited leadership’s acceptance of scenarios developed outside the senior team. Despite this resistance, elements of these scenarios influenced strategy over time through parallel initiatives, partnerships, and innovation efforts. The article highlights how leaders can use scenario planning not only to imagine alternative futures but also to navigate resistance and embed strategic change in complex organizations.