Reassessing the Cross‐Sectional Fiscal Multiplier: Evidence From U.S. Defense Procurement, 1966–2019
更新并扩展了Nakamura和Steinsson（2014）的数据集至1966-2019年，重新估计了美国国防采购的截面财政乘数，发现窄复制下乘数略低，但纳入后期财政事件后有所上升，且各州响应差异在合理范围内。
ABSTRACT This paper revisits the empirical analysis of Nakamura and Steinsson (2014). I reconstructed and extended the original dataset to cover the period 1966–2019, harmonizing two major sources of data: the Defense Contract Action Data System (DCADS) and USAspending.gov. I discuss how to aggregate these contract‐level data to better capture spending more directly tied to domestic stimulus. Estimated multipliers are slightly lower in narrow replications but increase when incorporating later fiscal episodes. I also assess the validity and stability of cross‐sectional estimates. While some heterogeneity exists, dispersion in state‐level responses remains within reasonable boundaries, especially when accounting for dynamic persistence.