Why Did Inflation Rise and Fall in 2021–2024? Channels and Evidence from Expectations
利用通胀预期数据，分析2021-2024年供给与需求冲击如何通过预期渠道影响通胀，并评估预期锚定程度，适合研究通胀机制与货币政策的学者。
This article uses inflation expectations to investigate the mechanisms that linked supply and demand shocks to inflation outcomes during 2021–2024. It describes several theoretical mechanisms through which shocks led to inflation, highlighting the role of expectations in this process. It uses multiple sources of expectations data for the United States, Euro area, and United Kingdom to evaluate each of these channels. Finally, it surveys the literature that has used expectations data to make sense of the 2021–2024 inflation surge. The article applies the results from this investigation to assess how well-anchored inflation expectations were during the surge and at the end of it.