Product change-driven stress tests for supply chains: towards resilience and viability
提出一种产品变更策略结合压力测试，通过三层网络模型和仿真优化方法，提升供应链在严重中断下的订单履行率和利润水平，为企业提供量化决策工具。
Large-scale supply chain (SC) disruptions have exposed the limitations of conventional SC-oriented resilience strategies in addressing long-term component shortages. This study proposes a product change strategy with stress testing to enhance SC viability. First, a three-layer supplier-component-supplier network model is constructed to quantify change propagation effects caused by component changes and identify components requiring synchronous changes. Second, a simulation-embedded mixed integer programming stress test model is developed. Third, a two-stage solution approach is proposed, whereby the identification of changed components is prioritised, followed by the optimisation of supply portfolios and production plans. Simulation results illustrate managerial implications. The product change strategy improves customer order fulfillment rates by up to 60.28 percentage points and reduces profit losses by up to 4.88 percentage points under severe disruptions. Increasing the component design margin from 0–0.006 to 0.03–0.05 reduces the number of components requiring synchronous changes from 18 to only 2, thereby lowering the implementation costs by approximately 4.86 percentage points and improving profit levels by 8.89 percentage points. The findings demonstrate that the proposed strategy extends the SC viability theory from concept to SC recovery practices from an integrated product-SC perspective. The methods provide quantifiable decision-making tools and actionable managerial guidance for enterprises.