Geopolitical Tensions and Market–Behavioral Responses: A Dual Perspective From Investors and Travelers on the Korean Peninsula
研究整合投资者和旅行者视角，分析1991-2024年间167起朝韩政治经济事件对韩国旅游企业股价和民众旅行意愿的影响，发现积极事件引发更大更持久的市场收益，而感知风险显著降低旅行意愿，挑战前景理论的损失厌恶假设。
This study examines how inter-Korean political and economic events affect financial markets and tourism behavior by integrating investor and traveler perspectives. Using 167 events (1991–2024), Study 1 applies an event-study to 20 publicly listed South Korean tourism and hospitality firms, separating positive and negative announcements. Study 2, an experiment with 240 Korean participants, tests whether perceived geopolitical risk mediates effects on domestic and international travel intentions. Results show immediate market reactions: positive events yield larger, more persistent gains than negative ones, while higher perceived risk significantly reduces travel intentions. Findings challenge prospect theory’s loss aversion and instead support desensitization, whereby repeated tensions dampen investor sensitivity to adverse news.