Dealing with water extremes: An exploration of conditions for transformative adaptation
本文分析了干旱危机在何种条件下可能触发水资源治理和人与自然关系的变革性适应，通过概念整合、类型学构建和三个探索性案例，揭示了网络治理和能动性的重要性，但指出地方性举措仍碎片化，未导致系统性转型。
• Potential of drought crises to trigger transformative adaptation. • Multi-functional landscapes increase the resilience to droughts and floods. • Transformative adaptation requires changes in mindsets and human-nature relations. Water scarcity already poses an existential threat to many regions of the world. Climate change will only make matters worse. Even regions that were not previously affected by such extremes are increasingly experiencing drought crises. Extreme droughts followed by extreme floods are becoming common, suggesting that these extremes should not be addressed in isolation. However, responses to threats from water extremes have so far been reactive rather than anticipatory and transformative. This contradicts the scientific communities long-standing normative claims for integrative and adaptive approaches enhancing the resilience of multi-functional landscapes to unprecedented extreme events. This article analyses which conditions under which recurrent drought crises might trigger transformative change in water governance and management and human-nature relations in general. To achieve this the article: integrates conceptual foundations to understand processes of and levers for change; introduces a typology for drought governance systems to analyse whether and how climate change adaptation may shift towards sustainable development trajectories; and uses three exploratory case studies to assess the applicability of the approach for analysing potential and limits for change. The analyses highlight the importance of agency and of different kinds of network governance. Drought crises can trigger local initiatives and experiments. However, such initiatives remain fragmented and do not lead to systemic transformation. The lack of an early response leads reinforces path-dependency and limits decision-making options. The conceptual approach introduced in this paper provides a basis for further comparative studies and targeted action research to overcome barriers to change.