Learning in the Limit: Income Inference from Credit Extensions
结合随机对照试验与行政及调查数据，发现信用卡额度提升显著增加总支出和收入预期；控制收入预期变化后，支出反应减弱约30%，表明消费者从信用供给推断未来收入。
ABSTRACT Combining a randomized controlled trial with administrative and survey data, this paper shows that credit limit extensions significantly increase total spending and income expectations. By controlling for changes in personal income expectations, the spending response to credit limit extensions weakens by approximately 30%. For financially unconstrained consumers, expectation changes account for around two‐thirds of the spending responses to limit extensions. These findings are consistent with consumers inferring future income from credit supply.