情景规划用于战略决策、学习和管理不确定性

Scenario Planning for Strategic Decision-Making, Learning, and Managing Uncertainty

CALIFORNIA MANAGEMENT REVIEW · 2026
被引 0 · 同刊同年前 10%
人大 A-ABS 3

中文导读

介绍情景规划作为一种动态整合方法,帮助组织在充满不确定性的环境中加强战略决策、促进学习并提升管理能力,无需预测未来。

Abstract

Summary In times of radical uncertainty marked by geopolitical conflict, technological disruptions, societal transformations, and climate risk, scenario planning is critical for strategists. In this introduction to the special issue on scenario planning, we showcase scenario planning as a dynamic, integrative approach for strengthening strategic decision-making, facilitating organizational learning, and enhancing management amidst uncertainty without trying to predict the future. We highlight what we see as the collective contributions and managerial takeaways of this special issue that underscore the relevance of scenario planning for organizations seeking adaptability, resilience and success in turbulent environments, and suggest directions for future research.

情景规划战略决策组织学习不确定性管理