Import‐Driven Pathways to RMB Internationalisation: Evidence From Network Analysis
本文利用网络拓扑和高维时变参数向量自回归模型，研究扩大进口如何通过提升市场信心、议价能力和供应链稳定性来增强人民币的国际影响力，并分析其对国内外系统性金融风险的双重影响。
ABSTRACT Against the backdrop of profound global economic restructuring and the growing diversification of the international monetary system, exploring the role of trade channels in promoting RMB internationalisation holds significant theoretical and practical importance. This paper examines how expanding imports affects the international influence of the RMB and explores the underlying mechanisms. Using a network topology approach and a high‐dimensional time‐varying parameter vector autoregression (HD‐TVP‐VAR) model, we measure the RMB's international influence and analyse the impact of import scale on it. The results show that expanding imports significantly enhances the RMB's influence in relevant regions, with the strongest effects observed in resource‐intensive and capital‐intensive industries. Mechanism analysis reveals that import expansion strengthens the RMB's international influence through channels such as boosting market confidence, improving bargaining power, and enhancing supply chain stability. Furthermore, the paper finds that the continued expansion of RMB internationalisation exerts a ‘double‐edged’ effect on China's domestic systemic financial risk, while simultaneously mitigating global systemic financial risk and enhancing macroeconomic resilience of other economies.