Scalable Calibration of Individual-Based Epidemic Models through Categorical Approximations
提出一种基于分类分布的确定性似然近似方法，用于校准个体流行病模型，支持自动微分和标准软件库，在保持准确性的同时大幅降低计算成本，并在2001年英国口蹄疫数据上验证了可扩展性。
Traditional compartmental models capture population-level dynamics but fail to characterize individual-level risk. The computational cost of exact likelihood evaluation for partially observed individual-based models, however, grows exponentially with the population size, necessitating approximate inference. Existing sampling-based methods usually require multiple simulations of the individuals in the population and rely on bespoke proposal distributions or summary statistics. We propose a deterministic approach to approximating the likelihood using categorical distributions. The approximate likelihood is amenable to automatic differentiation so that parameters can be estimated by maximization or posterior sampling using standard software libraries such as TensorFlow with little user effort. We prove the consistency of the maximum approximate likelihood estimator. We empirically test our approach on several classes of individual-based models for epidemiology: different sets of disease states, individual-specific transition rates, spatial interactions, under-reporting and misreporting. We demonstrate ground truth recovery and comparable log-likelihood values at substantially reduced cost compared to competitor methods. Finally, we show the scalability and effectiveness of our approach with a real-world application on the 2001 UK Foot-and-Mouth outbreak, where the simplicity of the CAL allows us to include 162775 farms.