Timing, uncertainty, and opportunity cost: Lessons for ecosystem modification on the Colorado River
研究了科罗拉多河上为保护濒危鱼类而采取的生态改造行动（如设计流量）的成本效益，发现延迟效应和不确定性会削弱效果，但针对性监测和实验可提升效率。
While conservation goals have long been pursued through traditional species-augmenting actions, a broader set of episodic ecosystem modification (EEM) actions, such as hydropower dam releases, prescribed fire, and beach nourishment, is garnering attention. EEM actions face several implementation challenges stemming from high opportunity costs, delayed effect mechanisms, reliance on monitoring for deployment timing, and outcome uncertainty due to infrequent use. In this paper, we study the use of EEM actions in the form of designer flows—ecologically-motivated releases of water into regulated river segments—to maintain a viable population of a threatened native fish species in the Colorado River. We demonstrate how the cost-effectiveness of EEM actions can be hampered by the complex and delayed effects on species viability, but enhanced through targeted monitoring for timing deployment and experimentation for reducing uncertainty about effectiveness.