A multi-valued neutrosophic ARAS model for economic resilience in uncertain olive farming systems
提出多值中智数与ARAS方法结合的MVN-ARAS框架，用于高不确定性下农业经济评估，以智利小农橄榄种植者适应气候变化策略为例，发现抗旱品种和节水灌溉技术最能提升经济韧性。
This study proposes the integration of Multi-Valued Neutrosophic Numbers (MVNNs) with the Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS) method to conduct an economic evaluation of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems under high uncertainty. MVNNs enhance traditional neutrosophic approaches by allowing multiple degrees of truth, indeterminacy, and falsity, providing a richer representation of the ambiguous and often conflicting economic data prevalent in agricultural planning. The proposed MVN-ARAS framework is presented with formal definitions, aggregation operators, and a step-by-step decision-making procedure tailored for economic assessment. Its effectiveness is demonstrated through an illustrative investment case and a real-world application to prioritize and economically evaluate climate change adaptation strategies for smallholder olive growers in Chile’s Coquimbo Region. Results show that drought-resistant olive cultivars and water-saving irrigation technologies achieve the highest relative utility values, indicating their dominant role in improving economic resilience under prolonged water scarcity. In contrast, diversification-oriented measures – such as value-added olive products and rural ecotourism – rank lower but still contribute to long-term income stability. These findings highlight the ability of the MVN-ARAS framework to deliver a structured economic evaluation, a robust ranking of alternatives based on cost-benefit and risk criteria, and improved handling of conflicting expert opinions, offering decision-makers a transparent and reliable tool for strategic investment and resource allocation to enhance economic resilience.