Inflation, War Bonds, and Voter Backlash in the 1950s
研究二战后美国战争债券与通货膨胀如何影响选民投票，发现债券购买多的县更倾向支持共和党，通胀引发对民主党执政的反弹。
Abstract We study the role of war bonds and inflation in post-WWII federal elections. After WWII, major bouts of inflation in 1946-48 and 1950-51 depressed the real returns of the bonds sold to households during the war. In a difference-in-differences framework, we find that counties with higher war bond purchases shifted their votes towards the Republican Party in postwar elections. To address the endogeneity of war bond purchases, we use an instrumental variables design, and obtain similar results. Bond ownership raised the saliency of inflation, and the severe rise in prices after the war triggered a backlash against the incumbent Democrats.