Measurement Error and Counterfactuals in Quantitative Trade and Spatial Models
指出定量贸易和空间模型中常用的当前世界状态存在测量误差，并提供了量化反事实不确定性的工具，推荐使用经验贝叶斯方法，兼具实用性和理论依据。
Abstract Counterfactuals in quantitative trade and spatial models are functions of the current state of the world and the model parameters. Common practice treats the current state of the world as perfectly observed, but there is good reason to believe that it is measured with error. This paper provides tools for quantifying uncertainty about counterfactuals when the current state of the world is measured with error. I recommend an empirical Bayes approach to uncertainty quantification, and show that it is both practical and theoretically justified.