From bigger batteries to new charging realities
该研究用场景感知生成模型预测2030年北京电动汽车每周充电需求，发现总充电负荷可能比2021年基线增长457%至509%，高功率充电对电网压力增大，为交通和能源规划者提供参考。
The rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) with increasingly advanced battery technologies is reshaping electricity demand patterns. Yet existing studies often assume static behaviors, overlooking that real-world charging patterns are transient and evolve in response to technological change. This study applies a scenario-aware generative modeling framework to project weekly EV charging demand in Beijing for 2030, capturing behavioral shifts driven by evolving battery technologies, usage patterns, and infrastructure conditions. Results indicate that total charging load could increase by 457–509% compared to a 2021 baseline under two different scenarios of battery size growth. Though medium-power (4–20 kW) charging remains dominant in event frequency, high-power ( > 20 kW) charging contributes substantially to loads, implying the growing risk of stress on the power grid in the absence of coordinated scheduling. The proposed framework provides a scalable, data-driven method to simulate EV usage and load patterns and offers valuable insights for transportation and energy planners confronting the rapid electrification of private mobility.