The cross-border effect of monetary policy on house price expectations
利用加拿大消费者预期调查数据，研究发现中国货币政策收紧会降低加拿大华人聚居区的预期房价增长，渠道是资本流出减少、贷款利率上升和中国房价下降。
Using region-level data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations from 2016Q3 to 2024Q4, we estimate the impact of Chinese monetary policy surprises on expected house price growth in Canada. Our findings suggest that tighter monetary policy in China leads to lower expected house price growth in Canadian regions with large Chinese populations. Our study shows that this effect is transmitted through lower capital outflows, higher loan interest rates, and lower Chinese house prices. Our study suggests that the monetary policy of a country from which real estate capital inflows originate can explain the spatial heterogeneity of local house price expectations.