The Intergenerational Impact of Birth-Control Policies on Fertility: The Role of Norms
研究中国独生子女政策如何通过改变生育规范，降低政策取消后下一代的生育率，基于2020年人口普查数据提供因果证据。
Abstract We study the intergenerational impact of birth-control policies on fertility and examine whether and how these policies reduce fertility, even after their abolition. We develop a model that integrates the endogenous evolution of fertility norms. Birth-control policies, through the reduction of mothers’ fertility, establish new norms that shape the fertility decisions of subsequent generations. Consequently, daughters’ fertility is lower due to these new norms, even when the policies are no longer in force. To test the model’s implications, we leverage a quasi-experimental setting provided by China’s One-Child Policy, which was implemented in a staggered manner starting in 1979 and gradually phased out beginning in 2014. Based on the recently released 2020 population census, our results reveal that the policy has an impact on reducing fertility and affects generations no longer subject to its regulations. This study is the first to provide causal evidence of birth-control policies from an intergenerational perspective and highlights the role of norms in shaping fertility outcomes.