The Dynamics of Internal Migration: A New Fact and its Implications
提出了一个基于持久且空间相关的个体效用的内部迁移模型,该模型能解释迁移率与时间平方根成正比的新事实,并具有不同的福利含义和反事实预测。
Abstract We propose a new model of internal migration, based on persistent and spatially correlated idiosyncratic utility. The model is motivated by a new fact in the data that simple moving cost models struggle to match: the t-year interstate migration rate is proportional to the square root of t. The new model maintains the tractability and flexibility of standard migration models, but better matches the dynamics of migration, including the new fact. It has substantially different welfare implications and makes different counterfactual predictions, especially in terms of dynamic adjustment and long-run responses.