Facets of Crises: How Problem Indicators and Public Perceptions Affect Policy Change
本文区分了危机的客观问题压力与公众感知两个成分，通过瑞士移民政策25年数据，发现两者共同出现时政策变化最大，但任一成分单独高涨也能引发显著变化。
ABSTRACT Crises are widely acknowledged as catalysts for policy change. Yet, our understanding of the policy effects of crises remains limited. Why do only some crises lead to major changes, while significant policy changes also occur during seemingly non‐crisis periods? This paper addresses this gap by distinguishing between two critical “components” of crises: objective problem pressures and public perceptions. We argue that these components often co‐occur but may not always align, leading to differing changes in policy outputs. Using migration policy in Switzerland as a crucial case study, we explore fluctuations in both objective metrics and public sentiment over a period of 25 years (1994 to 2019). Our analysis reveals that substantial policy changes typically occur when both components highlight crisis conditions. However, notable policy change can also be triggered by either high objective pressures or strong public perceptions of crisis. These findings highlight the significance of how scholars define and conceptualize crises, as well as the dimensions—whether objective or perceptual—that they use.