The uncertain waves: tourism, immigration, and gendered labor market dynamics
研究澳门经济政策不确定性、入境旅游和移民如何通过职业隔离和次要收入者动态，对男女劳动力参与率和失业率产生不同影响，对旅游依赖型经济体的包容性韧性政策设计有参考价值。
In tourism-dependent economies, where pronounced occupational segregation exposes women to more flexible but precarious service roles, understanding gendered labor market responses to external shocks is crucial for designing inclusive resilience policies. This study examines how economic policy uncertainty (EPU), inbound tourism and immigration shape gender-specific labor market outcomes in Macau. Employing a Bayesian SVAR model with sign restrictions on five shocks (non-tourism business cycle, inbound tourism, uncertainty easing, domestic labor supply and immigration), we identify dynamic responses of labor force participation and unemployment for men and women over 2001Q1–2024Q4. Results show strongly procyclical effects transmitted through occupational segregation and secondary-earner dynamics: women exhibit more persistent LFP gains and unemployment relief from business-cycle and uncertainty-easing shocks, while men respond more strongly in the short run to tourism shocks; immigration produces asymmetric patterns favoring sustained female unemployment relief. These gendered dynamics hold in both full and pre-COVID samples, underscoring that labor market resilience and gender-inclusive policies are interdependent in tourism-dependent economies.