Economic Assessment of the Role of Nuclear and Renewables in Future Decarbonized Electricity Markets
通过部分均衡模型和蒙特卡洛模拟，比较了太阳能、风能和核能在未来低碳电力系统中的盈利能力和福利效应，发现可再生能源在盈利和福利方面优于核能，但核能排放减少更多且电网扩建需求更少。
This study investigates and compares the profitability and welfare effects of investing in zero-carbon generation technologies (i.e., solar PV, onshore and offshore wind and nuclear) within the context of future low-carbon electricity systems. Using a partial equilibrium model calibrated to the electricity markets in Northwest Europe, a Monte Carlo cost simulation and a scenario-based sensitivity analysis, the analysis reveals that investments in renewables outperform investments in nuclear power when looking at the profitability and the aggregated financial welfare effects on other market participants. However, the profitability of nuclear power is less sensitive to changes in the electricity market and investments in additional capacity. Although investments in additional nuclear capacity result in a higher reduction of life-time greenhouse gas emissions and require less grid expansions than comparable investments in renewables, overall investments in nuclear result in more negative welfare effects than investments in renewables.