Childhood shocks and fertility: evidence from parental job loss
利用芬兰行政数据和1991-93年经济衰退期间工厂倒闭作为外生冲击，研究发现父亲失业使儿子43岁前成为父母的概率降低1.7个百分点，而母亲失业则加速女儿生育但不影响最终生育数量。
Abstract This paper examines whether adverse childhood economic shocks affect fertility in adulthood. Using Finnish administrative data and plant closures during the 1991–93 recession as exogenous parental job loss, I estimate long-run effects on children’s fertility. Paternal job loss reduces sons’ probability of parenthood by age 43 by 1.7 percentage points, while maternal job loss is positively associated with sons’ fertility and accelerates daughters’ childbearing without affecting completed fertility. Paternal displacement persistently lowers sons’ education, employment, and earnings; mediation analysis suggests that these socioeconomic scarring effects explain about half of the fertility decline. The remaining effect appears to operate through non-pecuniary mechanisms, such as family stress. Maternal job loss does not affect children’s socioeconomic outcomes, pointing to non-pecuniary channels, including changes in parent–child relationships. Overall, the findings indicate that economic shocks in adolescence have lasting intergenerational consequences for demographic behavior.