Monetary and Fiscal Policy: Some New Monetarist Arithmetic
借鉴萨金特和华莱士的“令人不快的货币主义算术”，研究了两种货币与财政政策组合的稳定性，发现长期通胀正负决定哪种组合更易引发多重均衡或波动，并与跨国数据一致。
Abstract Following Sargent and Wallace’s ‘Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic,’ we study different ways to implement monetary and fiscal policy. In one case, monetary policy pegs the path of the money supply, while fiscal policy adjusts endogenously to balance the budget. In another, fiscal policy pegs the deficit path, while money adjusts to balance the budget. We ask which is more prone to instability – i.e., more likely to have multiple equilibria, endogenous dynamics, or volatile responses to news? The answer depends on whether inflation (equivalently, the deficit) is positive or negative in the long run. This is consistent with cross-country data.