Tax Progressivity of Carbon and Gasoline Taxes: The Role of Income Inequality
通过模型和瑞典碳税数据，发现收入不平等加剧了必需品税的累退性，并指出用支出而非收入衡量福利时税负从累退转为累进，对政策制定者设计配套再分配措施有参考价值。
Abstract We present a simple model showing how income inequality and the income elasticity of demand jointly shape the tax progressivity of indirect taxes, with rising inequality increasing the regressivity of taxes on necessities. We test the model’s predictions by analyzing the Swedish carbon tax on transport fuel. We find that the tax becomes increasingly regressive over time, closely tracking rising income inequality. We also show that the relative incidence shifts from regressive to progressive when using annual expenditure rather than annual income as the welfare measure, as expenditure is more evenly distributed. A cross-country analysis of gasoline taxes in high-income nations further supports our findings, establishing a strong correlation between higher inequality and greater regressivity. Our model helps policymakers identify when complementary redistributive measures such as lump-sum transfers may become necessary.