Currency Network Dynamics and Renminbi Spillover Effects in the Asia‐Pacific Region
研究了2000至2023年亚洲货币网络的四阶段演化，发现人民币通过贸易规模和经济体量成为“影响核心”，新加坡元在金融危机中充当“桥梁货币”，双边贸易强度和资本账户开放度是人民币溢出的关键驱动因素。
ABSTRACT The evolutionary mechanisms of regional currency networks and the sources of core currency influence remain critical yet underexplored questions in international finance. While existing literature examines exchange rate spillovers, it rarely investigates the hierarchical structure of currency networks or the differentiated roles various currencies play. Using daily exchange rate data for 13 Asian currencies and 4 international currencies from 2000 to 2023, this paper employs a time‐varying parameter factor‐augmented vector autoregressive model with elastic network regularisation, combined with social network analysis, to systematically examine the structural dynamics of Asian currency networks. The findings reveal a four‐stage evolution of expansion, disruption, reorganisation, and re‐disruption, which closely aligned with major economic and geopolitical events. The Renminbi functions as an “influential core” primarily through trade scale and economic size, whereas the Singapore dollar serves as a structural “bridge currency” during financial crises. Panel regressions confirm that bilateral trade intensity and capital account openness are key drivers of Renminbi spillovers. This study provides the first empirical distinction between two types of currency core status, offering new evidence for understanding regional currency networks and Renminbi internationalisation.