Multivariate Trend Inflation in the United States and the Euro Area
复现了Stock和Watson（2016）的多元不可观测成分随机波动异常值调整模型，应用于美国和欧元区通胀，发现2020年后两地趋势通胀大幅上升，2024年底分别估计为2.3%和2.0%。
ABSTRACT I provide a precision‐sampler‐based replication of the multivariate unobserved component stochastic volatility outlier‐adjusted model of Stock and Watson (2016) applied to inflation in the United States and the Euro Area (EA). I find a substantial post‐2020 increase in trend inflation for both the United States and the EA, and estimate end‐2024 trend inflation at 2.3 and 2.0 percent, respectively.