自然灾害的持续风险促进合作

Persistent risk of natural disasters fosters cooperation

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty · 2026
被引 0
人大 BABS 3

中文导读

研究加纳农民发现,持续面临洪水风险的人更倾向于合作,且风险规避程度更高;但合作增强主要不是由风险规避驱动,而是对灾害的直接反应,这为基于集体努力的适应策略提供了基础。

Abstract

Abstract This paper investigates the effect of the exposure to a recurrent risk of floods on the inclination to cooperate among a sample of farmers in Ghana. More exposed individuals exhibit a stronger inclination to cooperate as well as higher risk aversion. These two effects significantly correlate, suggesting that risk aversion may operate as an intermediate variable by spurring the demand for self-insurance and self-protection. A mediation analysis shows that only 6.6% of the change in cooperation is explained by the increase in risk aversion, while the bulk of the effect is direct. A higher inclination to cooperate emerges as a spontaneous reaction to natural disasters. This effect can form the basis for adaptation strategies based on collective effort that policy interventions can stimulate, while increased risk aversion may discourage adaptation strategies that involve risk taking.

自然灾害合作行为风险规避气候变化适应